Published On: Mon, Jan 8th, 2018

Danske Daily – 8 January 2018

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We are heading for a quieter in terms of where inflation takes centre stage after activity numbers were in the spotlight last . On Wednesday, inflation is due out from China, Denmark and Norway followed by inflation releases for the US and Sweden on Friday. For more on this ’s data see Weekly Focus: Inflation figures in abundance , 5 January 2017.

Focus this week will also turn to the scheduled meeting between North and South Korea tomorrow to see if the apparent easing of tensions can be sustained and if it can pave the way for talks between the US and North Korea. There are doubts, though, as to whether North Korea are serious about the talks, see South China Morning Post .

Make-or-break talks on forming a German government between CDU/CSU and SPD began on Sunday and continue this week, see Bloomberg .If the exploratory talks find enough common ground, the SPD leaders will ask for a party convention on 21 January to back full-fledged negotiations.

This morning, German manufacturing orders for November are due out, which are estimated by consensus to be flat m/m after a 0.5% m/m increase in October. The monthly changes are very volatile but the underlying trend is robust and supports the picture of strong manufacturing activity.

Todays’ batch of confidence numbers from the EU Commission is expected to show a similarly strong development. Euro area retail sales should have rebounded in November after a fairly big drop in October.

Finally, we look for a 0.5% rise in Norwegian industrial production for December, taking the annual increase to 2.5% y/y – the highest level since March 2015.

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