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By Danske Markets On Monday, December 18th, 2017
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FX Forecast Update: NOK Relief In Sight – But USD Still Fragile In 2018

In this year’s last and shortened edition of FX Forecast Update we focus on discussing the main forecasts changes since the November version. More broadly, we also highlight five themes we think will be instrumental More...

By Danske Markets On Monday, December 18th, 2017
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FX Essentials – SEK Rally On Riksbank Ending Qe Likely To Be Short-lLved

– likely to dip on a Riksbank QE exit this week but any decline should prove short-lived due to a fragile housing market. – sell the cross via 3M bearish seagull and utilise elevated volatility to More...

By Danske Markets On Monday, December 18th, 2017
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China Leading Indicators: Bearish Signal From Commodities

All of our three favourite leading indicators point to a moderate slowdown ahead: Home sales growth has declined (p3). Commodity price inflation has weakened (p4). The credit impulse continues to be weak (p5). It More...

By Danske Markets On Monday, December 18th, 2017
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Scandi Divergence Becoming More Visible Despite Riksbank To End QE

The busy central bank month continues this week with the Riksbank meeting on Wednesday taking the limelight after Norges Bank took the Scandi focus last week. Even as the Riksbank is expected to say that the QE More...

By Danske Markets On Sunday, December 17th, 2017
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Sweden/Norway – Receive SEKFRA And Pay NOKFRA In A Cross-country Spread

Receive SEKFRAMAR19 and pay NOKFRAMAR19 in a spread on relative monetary policy at 113bp. P/L: 127bp/100bp. 6M roll: +5bp. The market expects the Riksbank to ‘outhike’ the Norges Bank over the next few More...

By Danske Markets On Friday, December 15th, 2017
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The Season Of Central Bank Meetings Continues

Market Movers ahead An important meeting is coming up in the Swedish Riksbank, as it has to decide on whether to end QE and it is a close call as to what it will chose. Higher wage growth is key if the ECB is to More...

By Danske Markets On Friday, December 15th, 2017
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Strong Economy And Low Rates Continue

Recent economic data releases support our view that the global expansion continues, not least in the euro area, where PMIs have been very strong in Q4. It is too early for markets to price out Brexit risk just yet More...

By Danske Markets On Friday, December 15th, 2017
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Danske Daily – 15 December 2017

Following the ‘Central Bank Super Thursday’ yesterday, we have a relatively light data calendar today. Focus remains also on the EU summit in Brussels, where the Brexit discussions are scheduled to take More...

By Danske Markets On Friday, December 15th, 2017
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Yield Outlook – Central Bank Exit But Only Modestly Higher Long Yields

We assume that the ECB is set to embark on a very careful exit strategy, ending its QE purchases in December 2018 and a very gradual hiking cycle in Q2 19. Importantly, we expect policy rates to remain substantially More...

By Danske Markets On Thursday, December 14th, 2017
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Danske Daily – 14 December 2017

Market movers today We do not expect the ECB to make any changes to its policy stance or forward guidance at the meeting today. Focus will therefore be on news regarding QE composition after the scale down and the More...