James Picerno

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By James Picerno On Tuesday, March 13th, 2018

Biggest U.S. Budget Deficit Since 2012 Stokes Inflation Outlook

The US federal government on Monday reported its biggest budget deficit in February in six years. By some accounts, the news offers another reason for projecting that Washington’s red ink and inflationary More...

By James Picerno On Thursday, March 8th, 2018

Treasury Market’s Inflation Forecast At Highest Level In 5 Years

The implied inflation outlook via 5-year Treasuries ticked up to the 2.10% mark this week for the first time since 2013. The increase matches the forecast for Notes, which have been estimating future inflation More...

By James Picerno On Monday, March 5th, 2018

A Week In The Red For All Assets But Inflation-Linked Treasurys

Last week’s trading ended in the red for all but one of the major asset classes, based on a set of exchange-traded products. US inflation-linked Treasuries edged higher over the five trading days through More...

By James Picerno On Tuesday, February 27th, 2018

Modest Pickup In Growth Expected For U.S. GDP In Q1

The median estimate for US growth in the first quarter is on track for a modest acceleration, according to the median of several forecasts compiled by The Capital Spectator. If the projection is correct, output More...

By James Picerno On Monday, February 26th, 2018

Commodities Lead The Pack In Mixed Week For Major Asset Classes

Commodities posted the strongest performance last week among all the major asset classes, based on a set of exchange-traded products. The gain follows renewed expectations that inflationary momentum may be firming More...

By James Picerno On Tuesday, February 20th, 2018

There Are (Still) No Shortcuts For Estimating Recession Risk

The St. Louis Fed last week pondered the question: “Is the U.S. Due for a Recession?” In a blog post the bank advised that after a long expansion “there is a concern that, even though the economy More...

By James Picerno On Friday, February 16th, 2018

A Closer Look At Stocks, Interest Rates And Inflation Links

Does history offer a reason to be cautious on the outlook for stocks if inflation and interest rates are rising? Yes, sort of, according to a New York Times article published on Thursday. Hedging just a bit, the More...

By James Picerno On Thursday, February 15th, 2018

U.S. Retail Spending Cools As Inflation Edges Higher

The US economic profile hit some turbulence in yesterday’s updates on and in January. The surprisingly soft spending data suggest that the macro trend has moderated in the kickoff to 2018 while pricing pressure More...